23 August 2024

The September/mid-October crazy period approaches.

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Did you know? From Meta AI

If Congress can't vote in a new president by inauguration day does the old president continue or does the speaker of the house take over?

If Congress can't vote in a new president by inauguration day, the Speaker of the House does not automatically take over. Instead, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 comes into play. Here's what happens:

1. The outgoing president's term ends: On January 20th (Inauguration Day), the outgoing president's term officially ends.
2. The president-elect is not yet confirmed: If Congress hasn't certified the election results or the president-elect is not yet confirmed, the office of the president is considered vacant.
3. The Speaker of the House becomes Acting President: According to the Presidential Succession Act, the Speaker of the House of Representatives becomes the Acting President of the United States until a new president is confirmed.
4. The Speaker serves until a president is confirmed: The Speaker will serve as Acting President until Congress confirms a new president, either by certifying the election results or by voting in a new president.

It's worth noting that this situation is extremely rare and has never occurred in U.S. history. Typically, the president-elect is confirmed well before Inauguration Day, and the transition of power occurs smoothly.

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3 August 2024

July was somnolent with the fancy stocks experiencing up and down days as the markets meandered at near all-time highs. Mr./Mrs. Market adopted a new attitude in August. On Friday, Recession talk arrived as the Sahm Indicator became the go to mantra of the talking head economists. The Sahm rule says a recession is under way when the 3-month average of the unemployment rate jumps more than half a percentage point in a year.

On Friday the unemployment rate rose by edging up .02% to 4.3%. That placed it up .053% from its 3 months low of 3.8% (rounded). In addition, the Jobs report was less than with 117,000 added versus estimates of 175,000.

On Friday after the less than economic reports Talking Heads posited that maybe the Fed should have reduced 25 basis points on Wednesday at the end of their July meeting. Of course, Thursday the talk was that if the Fed had reduced 25 basis points that would have panicked the markets.

Friday's reports were the impetus to send market measures down 2% and more. The reality is that during all of July the fancy stocks were teetering up and down. For example, NVidia- the rock star of the current market ended July down 15% from its June all time high

Recent recession talk was based in part on the now famous (we never heard of it till Krugman's NYT column on July 30) Sahm Rule. "The Sahm report predicted 10 of 11 recessions- (sort of). The Sahm rule was published by The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank's Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system in October 2019. It is retroactively calculated to evaluate performance from past recessions.

Table: Historical accuracy of the Sahm rule; Alert coincides with recession: (U.S. unemployment rate, dates when the Sahm rule triggered & actual recession time)[17]

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The Sahm Rule didn't really predict the previous recessions since it wasn't created until 2019. It did predict the 2020 recession but the collapse of economic activity caused by Covid. The Budster Recession Rule which I have just formulated is that anytime the Unemployment report jumps 4% in three months a recession will follow.

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Finally, Democrats have a good week

The Column: 07.29.24

Garrison Keillor Had a share on this so I'm offering to my readers. If you want to send it on to friends here's the link https://open.substack.com/pub/garrisonkeillor/p/finally-democrats-have-a-good-week?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

I've been on a solid high ever since July 21 when I was sitting in a café on South Wabash in Chicago, the El rumbling overhead, and the word came that Joe Biden had stepped out of the race and that Democrats now could find a candidate who demonstrates energy and acuity and passion and is not simply trying to pronounce all his words clearly. I know this sounds cruel but I am Joe's age and he makes 81 seem like senescence whereas it can be, given good genes and fine pharmaceuticals and some luck, a beautiful chapter of life.

I read the bulletin on my phone and looked around the café packed with people of many shades, and for all I've heard about us living in a Third World country, it didn't look that way to me at all. Chicago is the city of Oprah and Saul Bellow, John Belushi, Mavis Staples, Studs Terkel, where the Rolling Stones made a pilgrimage to see Muddy Waters, which tells me that America is Great and has been for a very long time and people who don't know that are in need of assistance.

I'd had a bad case of Biden blues imagining that the Con Man might get reelected but Nancy Pelosi took away Joe's car keys and though it got breathless coverage on the news, to me, an old man who gave up the car keys years ago, it seemed perfectly ordinary. Why punish yourself, trudging through the sludge on the campaign trail? Go home and read French novels and be less miserable.

That was then and since then a miracle has happened: Democrats became a party united in happiness, something we are unaccustomed to. Joe had the presence of mind to declare for his v-p who had remained in the background for three years, as a good v-p should, and in about 48 hours everybody and their cousin fell in love with Kamala Harris and a hundred million bucks flowed in and suddenly Democrats were in the news again. Talk about a fresh face — she looked rather fabulous. A smart woman, well-spoken, ebullient, a person who, unlike the Con, Actually Likes People and who has the flashiest smile in politics today. Mr. Golf Pants has a smirk and a scowl but he couldn't smile if you turned him upside down and jiggled him. And all week I was getting joyful phone calls from old libs who haven't been this happy since Barack and Michelle and those two little girls walked out in front of a big Chicago crowd in Grant Park on Election Night, 2008. It was like Baptists having a glass of wine and music is playing and suddenly you're dancing with your wife. Suddenly Donald Trump's worst dream comes true: he's facing a woman prosecutor.

Somewhere, a Republican behavioral consultant has been telling Mr. Trump to be careful insulting a mature woman of color, especially if you're a convicted felon. Thanks to him, many of his supporters have died from COVID and a new generation has sprung up. If Taylor Swift says the word "Kamala" or a word like it — "comely," "homily," "stamina" — this election is over. Young women are going to use GPS to get them to the voting booth and they'll take selfies in it and maybe do a podcast but they'll check the boxes marked D for decency and after 250 years we'll have ourselves a woman in the Oval Office doing the big stuff and her guy can pour tea for visiting dignitaries and celebrate Volunteer Week.

In the Senate Judiciary Committee, it was Kamala who made Brett Kavanaugh choke on his chaw when she asked, "Can you think of any laws that give the government the power to make decisions about the male body?" She was talking about abortion, but actually there are many such laws, the ones that give the government the right to throw your ass in jail, and that's why DT is running for office, to make the indictments disappear. Suddenly on July 21st, he felt very much older. And with Sleepy Joe benched, people are going to notice that Mr. Trump loves 130-word sentences with no discernable subject or predicate. Vanity prevents him from wearing glasses so he can't read the teleprompter and so he keeps giving the same 90-minute rant.

I guess this is what it takes to elect a female president, run an adolescent crook against her. Well, whatever. Taylor, do your duty and wear a Harris button and let's get this done.

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23 July 2024

Joe has done the honorable thing and now the Dems are in position to take the fight to The Trumpster. Hooray.

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19 July 2024

This is just a note to let you know we are still paying attention.

The fancy stocks gave back some gains this week but still remain much higher on the year. They remain overpriced- in our view-and their pullback this week was accompanied by a one-day Wednesday movement into non tech DJIA issues.

We continue to trade our retail favorites: The Gap, Nordstrom, Macy's and Under Armour as well as Key Bank, HAIN and Ford while also maintaining an oversized cash holding yielding 5% with our investment in USFR (Wisdom Tree 7 Day Treasury ETF.)

More later!!

28 June 2024

Woe. Who were those 2 elderly folks - one a congenital liar and the other a doddering elderly grandpa?

Mr. Market wants Trump for tax cuts, less regulation and a couple of more Supremes to guarantee the return of the Robber Barons. Dems just want someone who can win and not be a hindrance to the down ballot races.

As you know from reading me over the years, I am a bleeding-heart liberal. But even I have to admit that Uncle Joe turned into confused Grandpa Joe the other night. Politicians have huge egos. (They need them to withstand the almost or maybe more 50% of the people who hate them.) But sometimes one would hope that a few or even one in a position of power would consider that the good of the country comes first.

The Biden screed that he is the only one to beat Trump was disproved the other night. Reminds of the excuse companies for paying chief executives millions because he/she is the only one who can lead the country. Then the CEO dies or is fired and the board of directors pay the new untried CEO even more money.

If Joe were to resign and the Dems win/or lose in November he would have his place cemented in history as a man who placed the country's welfare above his ego. If he loses? Trump already has his place in history as the biggest liar. We don't need him to do more damage.

If Uncle Joe is as sharp as insiders say, he should have a press conference every week until the election. Showing he can handle question in a free for all atmosphere will allow him to recover. if he isn't able to handle that milieu or isn't willing to have press conferences he should resign.

I am an 80 years lifelong Democrat and will vote for whomever is the Dem nominee. If he can't handle press conferences he should retire and let Kamala become President. Then The Convention should throw the floor open. The publicity about the wide-open race would consume all the news for the next two months. Just Saying!